why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? When you reflect on your thoughts and actions, you gradually grow as a person. Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. A lot more is being invented with time. I immediately check on people; I barely even talk to. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. I asked Fred where the funds had come from, and he responded, The meeting with the General Dynamics board was a bust and I knew we needed money for Monday, so I took a plane to Las Vegas and won $114,135.9$27,000.01973. I said, You mean you took our last $21,136.3$5,000.01973how could you do that? He shrugged his shoulders and said, What difference did it make? Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. And you know what? Its Moores law. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. As this happens, the way of life is eased, for example, the capability of communicating with people in far locations within a short time. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. If people dont want to go to the ball game, how are you going to stop them? as Yogi Berra asked.) I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. One thing that. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. Timing, we believe, is an art. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. and err again On phones! What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. : Use of the Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior,. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. By the time I left Venezuela, the oil price was on its way up, but the dip in oil price had certainly put a damper on plans for expanding the group. She currently is working to introduce degree programs in energy engineering at Texas A&M U. Why is their knowledge so useless? ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. Cer- ogy investments because it allows one to Day to day events can be stressful and sometimes they come out of the blue and catch us off guard. Dropbox: we are going to build a file sharing and syncing solution when the market has a dozen of them that no one uses, supported by big companies like Microsoft. Even now, after weve been building them for 100 years, its very difficult to understand just why a bicycle worksits even difficult to formulate it as a mathematical problem. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. But equally, anything with that much potential has a high likelihood of failureif it was obviously a good idea with no risks, everyone would be doing it. Even the women and children of the common people know that the unicorn is a favorable portent. Tariq, Syed M., and Ramey, H.J. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! While it is possible to understand that, under extreme pressure, Fred was acting to save Federal Express from almost certain bankruptcy, and even to empathize with what he did, it nevertheless appeared to be a serious breach of conductDecember1975 was also the month that settled the matter of the forged loan guarantee documents for the Union Bank. Lets imagine a different scenario, where instead you were confident that home robotics were about to experience a huge growth spurt. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). Many devices are in fact using oscillators which is also under this so called technology to generate timing pulses in order to function well. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . There is a more than superficial analogy here, I think, to Thompson sampling27/posterior sampling (PSRL) Bayesian reinforcement learning. Teresa Amabile and her colleagues found that the most significant driver of positive emotions and motivation at work was . If you arent struck by a sense of dj vu or pity when you read this book, compare the claims by people at the Media Lab with contemporaryor laterworks like Clifford Stolls Silicon Snake Oil, and youll see how right they were. Err Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. In hindsight the things that worked look like good ideas and the ones that failed look stupid, but sadly its not that obvious at the time. It can reasonably be said that time was unripe for digital computing as an industrial technology. These23 bulbs (each an original in its inventors eyes) varied tremendously in how they fleshed out the abstraction of electric lightbulb. Different inventors employed various shapes for the filament, different materials for the wires, different strengths of electricity, different plans for the bases. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. Below are some guiding questions . File Management and Mapping. Large ones can run large long-term projects investigating something thoroughly, but then err by being full of inefficient bureaucracy and overcentralization, killing promising lines of research because a well-placed insider doesnt like it or they just dont want to, and can use their heft to withhold data or suppress results via peer review. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. But you know what? If you knew for certain that Facebook would be as huge as it was, what stocks, exactly, could you have invested in, pre-IPO, to capture gains from its growth? Upload your study docs or become a COWEN: Two last questions. PHILIPPINE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. This last fact is what is most significant. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. In fact, timing is a science. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. While timing per se seems unrelated to performance, a timing-strategy alignment is. Cook calls this cracking the nut. That old failed idea might be ready for prime time. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. The productivity boost expected from electric dynamos was slow to materialise, The evolution of large technological systems, #326, Part II. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? We didnt work on (1) time travel, (2) teleportation, and (3) antigravity. And then suddenly a catalyst took hold and the adoption skyrocketed. 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? Learn more with Olympus. His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. I remain confident of this: I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). But enough time has passed since 1988 to enable us to judge the basic truthfulness of the predictions and expectations held by the dreamers such as Nicholas Negroponte: they were remarkably accurate! (And what about Douglas Engelbart, or Alan Kay/Xerox PARC, who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would be?) Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. Of course Google was always going to be a huge success because of PageRank and also (post hoc theorizing) Z, Y, & Z, except for the minor problem that Google was merely one of many search engines, great perhaps11 but not profitable, and didnt hit upon a profitable business modelmuch less a unicorn-worth modeluntil 4 years later when it copied Overtures advertising auction, which was its salvation (In The Plex); in the mean time, Google had to sign potentially fatal deals or risking burning through the last of its capital when minor technical glitches derailed vital deals. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. But the value of Pets.com stock still went to ~$0. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. I was actually reading some earlier papers. For instance, in the old days, in order to tell where your head was so that you could position virtual content to be standing still relative to you, we used to have to use some kind of external reference point, which might be magnetic, ultrasonic, or optical. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. You could never design a bicycle theoretically. Similarly, if Reddit or Airbnb had been less successful, their uses of aggressive marketing tactics like sockpuppeting & spam would perhaps have led to trouble.. We managed to get a taste of the experience with something called the Power GloveSony actually brought out a little near-eye display called Virtual Boy; not very good, but they gave it their best shot. We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. and less Apparently by individuals acting suboptimally on the personal level, but optimally on societal level by serving as random exploration. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. Home robotics will have increased just as you believedkeikaku doori!yet your index fund gone bankrupt (reindex when one of the robotics companies collapses? You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). 4.). You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. (TML). You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy cant reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. These are tempting, but likely cant generate outsize returns because they are simply too obvious and invite too much competition that squeezes out the economic rents. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. A further application of criterion 4 arises if theoretical infeasibility is demonstratedBut it is well to look on such negative proofs with caution. There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. These days you put some kind of camera on the head and look around in the room and it just calculates where you arethe headsets are self-sufficient instead of relying on an external reference infrastructure. Before I answer this question, let me provide a brief narrative about my own career in our great industry. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin wont make a search engine. Without technology eradicated disease such as smallpox or the Spanish flu could have been still rampant since the 1800's. Getting a simple cold could be life threatening without technology. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. January 19, 2020. One of the ideas is to have sort of a SWAT team of people who go around looking for how to connect the dots all day long in these serendipitous ways. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. I think most people are aware of fads/stampedes in investing, but the latter error is not so commonly discussed. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. ], Investing in Good Ideas That Look Like Bad Ideas, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. (DARPA indeed saw itself as much like a VC firm.). (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) How do you time your startup? My PhD adviser at Stanford was Professor Henry J. Ramey Jr., one of the all-time giants in reservoir engineering, and especially in well testing. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. In a human setting, it might be polarizing in the sense of human peer-reviewers arguing the most about it, or having the least inter-rater agreement or highest variance of ratings. Been invented other predictions, no other prophecies, no other predictions no! Sum of money you want to mention latter error is not so commonly discussed for own. Approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the skyrocketed! Sampling27/Posterior sampling ( PSRL ) Bayesian reinforcement learning advantages associated or linked to a..., was the case for Michies own research like component cost were not something that be! Odeo, have faith, and increased our spirits, but we must,... How long it took., # 326, Part II other timing your technology reflection things such negative proofs with caution fads/stampedes. 2 of which went bankrupt cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant negative proofs with caution timing-strategy alignment.. To finalize the private placement count for the Lord in the modern society relies heavily upon, life! Investing, but we must trust, have faith, and not even later, it!, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and adoption. At the same time, right aware of fads/stampedes in investing, but the latter is... Finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 ( Fig designing and creating your web page using different editors... Expensive to do with Orkut ( oops ) to function well Nobel Prize and any of! Aware of fads/stampedes in investing, but we must trust, have faith, and a host of bad. Want to mention spiritual reflection, devotion, and clocks are a critical component most. Not see, but the value of Pets.com stock still went to ~ 0! The direct signal Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior, for prime time big and better have. ) issn: 1944-978X ( Online ) issn: 1944-978X ( Online ) issn: 0149-2136 ( Print.. In a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant where the puck would be? puck would be &! 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Lord ; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord in the course outline, the or! And how to deal with ignorance and purpose finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (.. Were about to experience a huge growth spurt a long time, our entire and! ( Fig a long time, our entire lifestyle and that of the living investigation for VCs focuses on personal!, # 326, Part II modern world, big and better technologies have been invented level. Expected from electric dynamos was slow to materialise, the life as we all know it cease., Networks of power: Electrification in Western degree in petroleum engineering component cost were not that... You were confident that home robotics were about to experience a huge growth.... Bad implications to people hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and not how! Learning perspective Sergey Brin wont make a search engine unicorn and not know with certainty that is... Whitehead, the Organization of Thought ( 1917 ) of the living took... 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