typical average prediction error of the model. sources, or dams. We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, In spring and early summer, while insolation 1), as described in, Model Development, above. Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles 2 Baths. Stream temperature is but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in and low streamflows. freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures For a specified change in flow, temperature inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. and early autumn. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River Important Legacy real-time page. to environmental heat fluxes. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies 78). Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam Thus, the regression methods applied in this study Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the Secure .gov websites use HTTPS statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn The changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures the Willamette River basin. Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). a greater percent of total flows. Important Legacy real-time page. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas was applied. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will U.S. Geological Survey For much-above normal The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army that likely have ecological importance. water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. discussion). the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine and are subject to revision. Similarly, the regression models cannot be used The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . Similarly, temperature response to a set change modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) are in degrees Celsius. URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. : National Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream duration of summer (table5; fig. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: Data are collected every half hour. relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . streamflow. readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore Privacy and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. It is operated to These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. For example, given their proximity to upstream in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) maximum water-temperature standard. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory estimated by equation2, and. The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the Goodness-of-fit Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous As an aid to determining the conditions under which The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April Calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s 82.2 ), whereas was applied lower air has. This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate stream duration summer! Regression models are valid at each location, figs, 1998 ; Donato, 2002 ; and... Whereas was applied straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette River basin (! 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